A housing campaign group fears Southwark Council’s landmark redevelopment of the Aylesbury Estate is “up in the air” as freshly revealed documents show it tried and failed to take over the regeneration.
The developer has, however, insisted that it remains “committed” to delivering homes on the Aylesbury Estate – although it and the council refused to be drawn on whether a completion date of 2036 was still achievable.
The revelation that the council attempted to acquire roughly 2,000 of the site’s 3,575 homes has fuelled speculation that developer Notting Hill Genesis (NHG) is struggling to build the homes it committed to in 2015.
Such speculation is compounded by NHG’s recent admission it fell short of its own nationwide house-building targets in the last financial year.
In the meantime, dozens of families, some of whom are stranded in vermin-infested flats, are living on the estate waiting for new homes to be built.
Southwark Council said its plans to take over portions of the Aylesbury Estate regeneration were scuppered when central government’s economic decisions “led to rapid inflation”.
A Very Brief History
Walworth’s Aylesbury Estate, with a mammoth 2,700-flats was built by Southwark Council in the late 1970s. Once completed, it was one of the biggest public housing estates in Europe.
Over the next 40 years, it fell into disrepair, leaving Southwark Council to decide whether to refurbish the estate or demolish and redevelop it.
In 2014, Southwark Council made the controversial decision to demolish and rebuild the estate in partnership with private developers including NHG.
In 2015, NHG secured planning permission to build a maximum 3,983 homes on the site. They later committed to build 3,500 of these, with L&Q delivering the rest.
According to a council report, NHG and Southwark Council had hoped to complete the regeneration by 2032. Marketing documents appear to show that, around 2018, this was pushed back to 2036.
Southwark Council’s Increasing Involvement
Since then things have changed slightly, with Southwark Council agreeing to take on more house-building responsibilities.
In July 2020, with construction on the First Development Site stalling, Southwark Council bought 280 extra homes from NHG for £193 million.
Labour councillors celebrated the deal, pointing out it meant 280 private flats would be built as social rent flats.
However, it also meant people started asking questions about who was now in charge of the Aylesbury Estate redevelopment.
The Hidden Document
So when, in January 2022, Southwark Council announced plans to alter its 2014 development partnership agreement with NHG, but hid the details of those changes in a closed report, eyebrows were raised.
Local housing campaign group The 35% Campaign submitted a freedom of information (FOI) request to get Southwark Council to reveal the contents of the report.
Southwark Council initially refused. But after eighteen months of persistence, the 35% Campaign finally obtained the closed report with some key lines no longer redacted.
Astonishingly, it showed that Southwark Council had planned to take responsibility for huge portions of the Aylesbury Estate redevelopment away from NHG.
Under its proposals, the council would have taken on responsibility for the construction of approximately 2,000 homes, dwarfing the number being built by NHG.
Last week, the News approached Southwark Council and NHG asking why this dramatic change to a long-standing agreement had been agreed. The short answer is – it hadn’t.
Southwark Stopped in its Tracks
Southwark Council admitted that, in a bid to “leave no stone unturned”, it had explored taking over some phases of the project in order to deliver more overall social housing.
Cllr Helen Dennis, the interim Cabinet Member for New Homes & Sustainable Development, said: “In 2021 an opportunity arose, thanks to changes in rules around financial borrowing, for the council to take over some phases of the project.
“This would have allowed us to build more council homes, and at a faster pace – both things residents have told us they want. These changes required complex discussions and negotiations with our partners Notting Hill Genesis.”
However, Cllr Dennis has suggested that former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s mini-budget, which saw inflation sky-rocket, scuppered the council’s plans.
Cllr Dennis said: “The devastating impact of the Government’s economic decisions led to rapid inflation and much higher interest rates, resulting in an extremely challenging context.”
As a result, the council says negotiations with NHG were abandoned and it was agreed not to take the plans forward.
NHG has said it is “delighted” to continue to provide new homes on the Aylesbury.
Is Notting Hill Genesis Still Committed to the Project?
Construction has not started on 2,000 of the 3,500 homes promised to be built and, despite NHG’s reassurances, many are questioning whether they can be delivered as planned and on time.
Cllr Dennis has however highlighted the progress already made. She said: “Over 600 new homes at council or social rent have either been completed or started on the estate, including 23 brand new homes for over 55s on the area known as Plot 18, new homes for those with learning disabilities and a new Extra Care facility.
“Every home on the site known as FDS B will be a council home. We are also looking forward to the opening of the new library towards the end of this year, a new community centre, and a medical centre in 2024.”
But Jerry Flynn, a spokesperson for the 35% Campaign, said: “The whole future of the Aylesbury regeneration appears to be up in the air, when it is less than half finished.
“Southwark resolved to take it over from Notting Hill Genesis back in January 2022, but now realise that they do not have the resources to do the job.”
There are other reasons why some suspect NHG may be looking for a way out of the project.
Firstly, despite securing outline planning permission for the site in 2015 NHG decided not to follow it and instead submit a standalone application for Phase 2B.
Mr Flynn has questioned why it would do this if it was still committed to delivering all 3,500 homes as planned.
“NHG says that they want to continue providing new homes, but why are they not using the outline planning permission they already have to do this?” Mr Flynn asked.
Answering those queries, an NHG spokesperson said: “The Outline Planning Permission is still in place and as we move onto each phase we will work in partnership with the community and the council to ensure we deliver the best possible outcomes.”
Furthermore, the soaring price of building materials and personnel, which saw house-building costs rise by 4.5 per cent between June 2022 and 2023, could also be slowing the regeneration.
Importantly, both NHG and Southwark Council have recently gone public over their separate house-building woes.
In its 2023 financial report, NHG said it was pursuing a “constrained” development programme and that it had only started building 459 homes that financial year – almost 1,000 less than its target.
Meanwhile, Southwark Council’s former housing chief Michael Scorer admitted the authority lacked the cash to meet its target of building 11,000 homes by 2043.
Finally, NHG had already pushed its regeneration completion date for the Aylesbury back from 2032 to 2036.
Despite repeated requests by the News Southwark Council and NHG have refused to say whether they believe the regeneration date of 2036 could still be met.
Stranded on the Aylesbury
The real losers in this are arguably Southwark residents – particularly the 17,000-plus individuals on the housing waiting list.
Georgie Howell lives in temporary accommodation on the Aylesbury Estate, with her two young children, in one of the hundreds of flats earmarked for demolition.
She is desperate for a new home and says her flat is infested with vermin. “Pest control are coming over again tomorrow because there’s been more,” she said.
“There’s still cockroaches, vermin, mould and damp and my housing officer still doesn’t reply.”
Georgie says she’s seen new builds on the Aylesbury Estate appear on Southwark Homesearch but that she is sometimes 100th in the queue.
In Taplow Block, Fatmata Koroma, lives with her five children in a flat she says has been infested with cockroaches and mice for nine years.
Fatmata said: “It seems like the council has just neglected the estate because they know it’s going to be knocked down.”
The Future of the Aylesbury Estate
Many questions submitted by this paper have gone unanswered including how much the scrapped deal would have cost the council and what the current timeline for the regeneration is.
But even if NHG’s most recently announced completion date of 2036 remains correct, that’s still a long time away.
As we have seen over the course of the regeneration so far, a lot can change in a decade. The council, developers and residents will all hope the economic and political situation will make the Aylesbury’s successful regeneration possible.
At its party conference, Labour recently committed to building 1.5 million homes in just five years through planning reform and fast-tracking brownfield schemes.
In the meantime, NHG has reiterated its commitment to building new homes the Aylesbury. Its spokesperson said: “Ever since we were selected as Southwark Council’s development partner for the Aylesbury Estate in 2014 we have been committed to providing safe, energy efficient and high quality homes for the community there, and that is as much the case now as ever.
“While we understood Southwark Council’s decision to look into delivering future phases of the Aylesbury Estate regeneration and have always been supportive of the delivery of increased council housing, we are delighted to be able to continue providing new homes and this important regeneration in partnership with the council.”