IN football, the disparity between a team’s home and away form is nothing new.
You don’t need any detailed statistics to conclude that teams generally pick up more points in their own stadium than they do in someone else’s. While you might occasionally find an anomaly to this rule, it’s clear that most sides thrive in front of their own fans and struggle in less familiar settings.
There are few clubs that epitomise this theory more than Millwall.
The Den is one of the most feared stadiums in English football. The incredibly hostile atmosphere proves to be too much for many sides in the Championship, and the Lions boasted the third best home record in the entire division last season as a result. Only champions Fulham and runners-up Bournemouth picked up more points on their own turf.
This is incredibly impressive, given that Millwall ranked 16th in the Championship’s home attendance rankings, averaging just shy of 13,000 fans.
However, the Lions’ poor away form was ultimately the difference between their eventual ninth place finish and a spot in the playoffs.
It can’t be forgotten that last year was their tied-fourth best finish since the turn of the century, and shows that the club are able to compete for a place in the top six despite operating on a much lower budget than many of the sides at the top end of the league.
To some, this might be stating the obvious, but addressing their away form would likely be the difference between Millwall’s promotion hopes being a pipe dream and turning into a genuine possibility.
Gary Rowett’s side had the 17th best away record in the Championship last season, picking up just 24 points from their 23 games on their travels. This is worse than the likes of Cardiff City, Hull City and Stoke City, all of whom finished in the bottom half of the division last season.
It shows that Millwall, in a way, are two totally different sides. At home, they’re an incredibly resilient side who are fuelled by the fiery atmosphere at The Den, capable of occasionally thrashing an opponent but often end up grinding out impressive results in front of their own supporters.
Away from home, that confidence seems to dip massively. All five of the Lions’ away wins were by a one-goal margin, which isn’t a real issue, but does highlight the difference. If they’d manage to turn just a handful of their nine away draws into wins, we’d likely be analysing their exploits in last season’s playoffs.
While a six point gap to the top six might feel significant to some, the individual results show that it was narrow margins that prevented them from making that next step and qualifying for the Championship playoffs for the first time since 2002.
Much of this summer’s focus is on signings, and rightly so, as Millwall are operating with an incredibly thin squad at the time of writing. But on top of the additions that are needed, the Lions may be just a couple of psychological tweaks away from bridging the gap to the top six.
Only Derby County, who suffered a 21-point deduction and were relegated to League One with a makeshift squad of academy players and Premier League veterans, finished with a bigger gap between their home and away total than Millwall.
This isn’t to say that the Lions need to suddenly win all of their away games in order to stand a chance of winning promotion, but overcoming the mental block that has troubled them on the road could certainly make the difference.
If they can do this while bolstering their squad this summer and keeping The Den as a near impenetrable fortress, then the playoffs could genuinely be within reach next season.
Photo: Millwall FC