MORE than ever, numbers dominate modern day football.
Since around the time ‘expected goals’ became a commonplace topic when discussing the game, it has become increasingly difficult to escape the facts and figures even if they are of little interest to you.
With eight games left in Millwall’s season, several interesting stats have emerged from their remarkably topsy-turvy campaign that paints an interesting picture about themes that have defined the last eight months.
Here, in no particular order, are the numbers that have caught NewsAtDen‘s eye so far.
1) Clean sheets + wins = success
It was not until last month’s 2-1 victory at Southampton that Millwall managed to win a game they had conceded in.
Saints striker Che Adams cancelled out Japhet Tanganga’s early goal before Zian Flemming’s penalty just before half-time proved enough to grab the win.
All of Millwall’s other 10 victories this season have come while keeping out the opposition team.
That gives them a 90 per cent rate of wins coming with a clean sheet, far outranking second-place Southampton who, with 13 of their 19 wins coming with a clean sheet, have a percentage of 68 per cent.
At the other end of this weird table are Blackburn Rovers with 36 per cent (four of their 11 wins came with a clean sheet) Bristol City (five clean sheet wins from 13) with 38 per cent.
The numbers are good in a sense that it suggests the Lions are far better than others at nicking a goal and staying disciplined at the other end, but it also means they are statistically far less likely to win a game when conceding than any other Championship side.
2) No braces or hat-tricks
By this time last season, Charlie Cresswell had hit a debut brace against Stoke City while Tom Bradshaw and Zian Flemming also had a brace each. Bradshaw and Flemming had also managed three hat-tricks between them. There was also that extremely rare case of a pair of own goals both coming in stoppage time in that memorable 2-2 draw at Swansea City in August 2022.
But this season, there is nothing of the kind and no player has scored more than one goal in a game since Duncan Watmore’s double against Blackburn on the final day of last season.
This isn’t completely unheard of with the 2020-21 season also seeing no eye-catching scoring exploits at the same stage either.
But in all the other seasons since Millwall’s return to the Championship in 2017, normally there are at least a few braces to go around, with George Saville alone hitting two doubles within the space of two months in the 2017-2018 season.
This reflects a wider trend – Tom Bradshaw and Kevin Nisbet, both of whom have had injury-hit seasons, have only managed nine goals combined so far.
With eight goals in all competitions, Zian Flemming will be looking to get into double figures. If he doesn’t, it will be the first time no Millwall player has managed to get at least 10 since Lee Gregory in the 2014-15 relegation season.
3) Joe Edwards’ big results
It was an unfortunately short stay at Millwall for Joe Edwards who lasted only 18 league games before his dismissal.
His Lions managerial career was coincidentally bookended by two games against Sheffield Wednesday – a 4-0 win at Hillsborough and a 2-0 defeat at The Den.
That 4-0 victory that begun his tenure was Millwall’s biggest league away win since 2015. He then presided over Millwall’s biggest league home defeat since 2015 when Ipswich Town ran riot at The Den on Valentine’s Day.
4) Goal-scoring bursts
Having managed just two goals in 140 games for Rotherham United, few were expecting defender Wes Harding to emerge as a consistent threat in the opposition box. And yet the 27-year-old managed three goals across four games during a bizarre scoring patch in the Autumn.
Something similar happened with Murray Wallace who went 56 league games without scoring before netting twice in nine games. And the goal-scoring bug has now moved on to Japhet Tanganga, who has two in the five games having failed to register at all in his 50 games for Tottenham Hotspur.
Jake Cooper, without a goal since February 2023, would love to find his shooting boots soon. He has averaged around three goals a season for Millwall across his six previous full campaigns and has managed to hit the bar twice (against Watford and Middlesbrough) without finding the net so far.
Ryan Leonard is also due a goal – his last was October 2020, 84 league appearances ago. Danny McNamara is 72 league appearances without a goal while Billy Mitchell leads this particular pack as he has not scored in 107 Millwall league appearances.
5) Home Form
It is no secret that Millwall’s home form has been appalling this season and it currently ranks as the fourth-worst in the Championship.
In fact, the drop-off in home form has been the primary reason why Millwall are fighting relegation as their away points haul is around where it usually is at this time of the campaign.
Neil Harris managed back-to-back wins against Watford and Birmingham City in the last two home fixtures to help Millwall to 22 points at home so far, their poorest collection at this stage of the season at The Den since the 2020-21 season, when the Lions claimed 25 points in front of an empty stadium due to Covid.
The stats complement the traditional narrative that Millwall are reliant on strong home form to have good seasons.
Millwall’s allocation of points home and away at the same stage over the last five seasons
- 23-24 – 21 points away/22 points at home – Final League Position: TBC
- 22-23 – 25 points away/35 points at home – Final League Position: 8th
- 21-22 – 21 points away/36 points at home – Final League Position: 9th
- 20-21 – 27 points away/25 points at home – Final League Position: 11th
- 19-20 – 23 points away/31 points at home – Final League Position: 8th