WHISPER it quietly, but we may be witnessing one of the great Championship relegation battles in recent memory.
The midweek fixtures have somehow left the bottom half of the league looking even tighter than it did last weekend, with two points separating eight teams and all but one side in the bottom half within seven points of another.
The chaotic nature of the situation was perhaps best summed up on Wednesday night when, with Queens Park Rangers playing out a thrilling 2-2 draw with West Bromwich Albion, defender Steve Cook, of all people, had a jaw-dropping overhead kick cleared off the line by Darnell Furlong.
“I’ve just seen Steve Cook nearly score an overhead kick,” one person tweeted. “What is this league?”
Another astonished football fan said on X: “Steve Cook almost scored an overhead kick. The Championship, man.”
With 10 league games remaining, there will almost inevitably be more awe-inspiring moments that will capture the imagination with around a dozen teams far from guaranteed to still be playing in this division next season.
The fact that neutral fans have such an extraordinary fight to enjoy is even more surprising given that, for most of the season, the bottom three looked set in stone.
From October until very recently, QPR, Sheffield Wednesday and Rotherham United had diligently occupied the bottom three spaces and were largely cut adrift
While the Millers remain rooted to the foot of the table and now almost certainly goners, QPR boss Marti Cifuentes and Wednesday head coach Danny Rohl have engineered impressive turnarounds to keep their sides in contention against all odds.
The unlikely feats of the two managers, plus the unique way points have been siphoned to both ends of the table this season, have created a situation where clubs like Watford and Bristol City who were thinking about play-offs just a few weeks ago are now having to look over their shoulders.
Third-bottom Stoke City have 38 points after 36 games, more than any other club in the same position since the 2019-20 season.
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Points total of the third-bottom team after 36 games in the past five seasons
2023-24 – Stoke – 38 points
2022-23 – Blackpool – 32 points
2021-22 – Barnsley – 25 points
2020-21 – Rotherham 35 points
2019-20 – Middlesbrough 38 points
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This high points haul of the third-bottom club – along with second-bottom Sheffield Wednesday also having 38 points – has meant teams usually relaxing in mid-table at this stage of the campaign have to be on red alert.
The top four teams also have an unusually high amount of points compared to normal. Leeds United, who are third, have 76 points, 13 more than third-placed Middlesbrough had at this stage last season. The concentration of points at both ends of the table have left those in the middle with no place to hide. Everyone is effectively either pushing for promotion or trying to avoid relegation even at this late stage of the season.
So where do Millwall factor into all of this? Neil Harris left Cambridge United last month, escaping one madcap, multi-team relegation fight in League One just to find another one waiting for him in the division above. The seven points from three games he has managed to claim means the Lions have still not ended a single matchday in the relegation zone and on paper there are enough winnable games left to salvage safety.
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Millwall’s remaining fixtures
Saturday (H) – Birmingham City (20th)
17th March (A) – Leeds United (3rd)
29th March (H) – West Brom (5th)
1st April (A) – Rotherham (24th)
6th April (A) – Huddersfield Town (21st)
9th April (H) – Leicester City (1st)
13th April (H) – Cardiff (10th)
20th April (A) – Sunderland (11th)
27th April (H) – Plymouth Argyle (16th)
4th May (A) – Swansea City (15th)
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It’s not just Millwall who have been playing managerial musical chairs this season. While none of the current top 10 in the table have changed their head coach, 12 of the bottom 14 have, including all of those who occupy 14th and downwards.
Only Plymouth Argyle’s change was enforced by outside forces with Stoke City hiring Steven Schumacher in December. Schumacher’s Stoke host Plymouth – now led by Ian Foster – on matchday 44 in what could potentially be a decisive clash if both teams are still fighting for survival.
That game could also end up being irrelevant. It’s probable that the relegation battle has peaked early and now several teams could be about to pull away.
At the moment, Harris said he is only worried about his next opponents Birmingham and not what is going on elsewhere.
He said in his pre-match press conference yesterday: “I’m excited and I take it one game at a time. I’m not over-analysing who Huddersfield, QPR, Stoke, Sheffield Wednesday, Blackburn are playing this weekend – although I know who Birmingham are playing.
“I can’t control that. What I can control is trying to pick the best team for the occasion and the right tactics and try and make the best subs and mentally preparing the players. I’ve been in a great place and I’m very much enjoying it and I’m delighted with the group and we just want to continue that momentum.
“Seven points in three games after not winning for so long. It’s a credit to the players.”
Millwall will fancy their chances in upcoming games against Birmingham, Rotherham and Huddersfield, while the trip to Leeds will give Harris a chance to recreate that famous victory he presided over from 2018.
The home games against West Brom and Leicester also give Harris the opportunity to upset the apple cart like he did against Southampton last month.
The issue for the Lions is if the turnaround in results is just a short-lived new manager bounce and they slip into similar patterns seen under Gary Rowett and Joe Edwards, where they struggled at The Den and were unable to put together consistent performances.
The first three games under Harris have shown progress but fans will be hoping for improvements in possession and in chance creation going forward. So far, Southampton, Watford and Blackburn Rovers have had more possession, shots and shots on targets in all of the games but Millwall have found ways to get results.
Supporters will also be wary that in three recent seasons – 2018-19, 2020-21 and 2022-23 – the Lions have suffered from sudden lapses in form in the final few weeks of the campaign.
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Points needed for Championship safety over the last 10 seasons
2022-23: 45
2021-22: 38
2020-21: 44
2019-20: 49
2018-19: 41
2017-18: 42
2016-17: 52
2015-16: 41
2014-15: 42
2013-14: 45
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It is likely this season will be one of the rare instances in recent years where getting close to or past the 50-point mark will be needed to survive. But the congested nature of the league at the moment means one or two wins can leave fans of any club breathing far easier.
Millwall are among the form teams of those in the bottom half but special mention must go to Sheffield Wednesday who have now won five of their last six and are in the relegation zone only on goal difference. Upcoming games against Leeds at home tonight and Ipswich Town eight days later will test the head of steam they have built up.
It is impossible to predict who will be going down and who can claw their way to safety but one way or another, we are set for a fascinating end to the season.