IT’S just as well Millwall lost their last game before their south London derby against Crystal Palace in the third round of the FA Cup this Saturday.
About the only thing we can say is that probably increases their chances of knocking out their neighbours, given the pendulum swings of results lately.
The Lions have followed up each of their last five league defeats since August with a win in their next game. So hopefully that pattern will continue this weekend.
There are other things in their favour. One is a sold-out Den that over the previous five seasons has roared the side on to victories over AFC Bournemouth, Watford, Leicester (then the reigning Premier League champions) and Everton.
Millwall were seconds away from reaching a semi-final in 2018-19 when leading another Premier League side, Brighton, 2-1 before David Martin dropped Solly March’s mis-hit free-kick over the line in the 95th minute. Shane Ferguson was sent off for a stamp in the 119th minute and the Seagulls won 5-4 on penalties.
The Lions haven’t fared so well at home in the competition under Gary Rowett, losing to Sheffield United and Bristol City in the fourth round in the last two seasons.
They were limp displays but the sight of the Eagles in their own backyard for the first time in a competitive game for almost nine years should have everyone fired up.
Rowett has also rotated players in this competition and the big question is whether he will take the same approach against Patrick Vieira’s side.
Ordinarily, the answer to that would be an emphatic ‘no’. Why not put out the full complement for arguably Millwall’s biggest third-round home draw this century? But Millwall already have two more games to fit into their schedule after festive postponements.
Some of it will also be out of Rowett’s control. First-team players Daniel Ballard and Ryan Leonard are already long-term absentees. Jed Wallace is a doubt and there are players returning after positive Covid-19 tests who need match action ahead of the league match against Nottingham Forest on Saturday week.
Vieira missed his side’s 3-0 defeat away to Tottenham on Boxing Day. Like Millwall did before their game against Coventry, Palace asked for a postponement but received the same decision as the Lions that it had been rejected.
Palace were still missing players as they lost 3-2 at home to West Ham last weekend. The club preferred not to say whether their best player this season, Conor Gallagher – who is on loan from Chelsea – was one of the positive cases. Gallagher has missed the last two games.
Millwall have had just 15 senior players available for their last two matches. It would be some story if Zak Lovelace featured against a Premier League team in just his second senior appearance, two weeks before his 16th birthday.
The Lions should have more numbers than that available as Maikel Kieftenbeld and Mason Bennett trained at The Den on Thursday. Then again, as the last month has shown, there are few guarantees.
Adding to the potential drama, this tie has to be settled on the day, so there could be more extra-time and penalty shootout tension.
That ending didn’t work out against the Seagulls. If it reaches that point, the hosts will hope for a different result against the Eagles.
Possible Millwall starting XI: 3-4-1-2: Long; Hutchinson, Cooper, M Wallace; McNamara, Mitchell, Saville, Malone; Ojo; Bradshaw, Afobe.
Match odds: Millwall 5/2 Draw 12/5 Crystal Palace 6/5
Last meeting: Championship (April 30, 2013): Millwall 0-0 Crystal Palace.
Image: Millwall FC