MILLWALL boss Gary Rowett flagged up the futility of looking at fixtures on paper last week.
“You can have what looks like a potentially good run not turn out that way,” he said before the game against Luton. “And maybe a run of fixtures that looks difficult that you get more points from than you’re expected to.”
He wouldn’t have expected those words to be proved so prophetic so quickly.
The Lions got “a smack in the chops” as they surprisingly lost 2-0 at home to Luton at a quickly emptying-out Den last Saturday, but then went and won 2-1 against Sheffield United at Bramall Lane on Tuesday.
Stoke were fifth and Millwall 14th before the midweek games, but just five goals were the difference between those positions. The sides had conceded the same number of goals (13) but Michael O’Neill’s Potters had scored just five more, and that equated to six more points accumulated.
It shows how these teams are generally involved in tight games with one goal more often than not the difference.
That gap is now down to three, after the Potters lost 1-0 at home to Bournemouth on Tuesday, their first league defeat at the bet365 Stadium this season. They have lost three away from home.
Only two of Millwall’s 13 league games involved a winning margin by more than a goal, Stoke three. It points to a closely-fought contest that will have little in it.
That’s when Millwall should be at their best, and something Rowett highlighted he wanted to see after their 2-0 defeat at home to Luton last Saturday.
“It doesn’t happen in the Championship, you have to earn it,” Rowett said. “You have to show that little bit of grit and desire and fight for every loose ball.
“If you don’t do that, you won’t win games.”
Stoke haven’t won in London since November 2014, a 2-1 win over Tottenham, while the Lions are on a five-game unbeaten run against Rowett’s former club.
But after last Saturday, when Luton won at The Den for the first time since 1999, Lions fans know they can’t get too carried away with those statistics.
Rowett will be without Benik Afobe who can’t play against his parent club. Matt Smith or Tom Bradshaw are the likely options to start as the focal point of the attack.
George Saville is suspended. Danny McNamara was rested against Sheffield United and if he returns then Ryan Leonard could play in central midfield.
Murray Wallace is a doubt after missing the Bramall Lane trip with concussion.
Sam Clucas and Nick Powell have joined Stoke’s injury list.
Possible Millwall starting XI: 5-2-3: Bialkowski; Leonard, Ballard, Hutchinson, Cooper, Malone; Evans, Kieftenbeld; J Wallace, Bradshaw, Ojo.
Match odds: Millwall 6/5 Draw 12/5 Stoke 6/5
Last meeting: Championship (April 5, 2021): Stoke 1-2 Millwall (Brown 41; M Wallace 35, Bennett 71).
Millwall: 5-2-3: 33 Bialkowski; 23 McNamara (Romeo, 90+2), 3 M Wallace, 15 Pearce, 5 Cooper, 14 Malone; 28 Evans, 24 Mitchell; 7 J Wallace (Bradshaw, 90), 13 Zohore (Kieftenbeld, 45), 20 Bennett (Bödvarsson, 82).
Image: Millwall FC