AS we enter the final weeks of the Championship season, Millwall have been tipped as one of the hot favourites to secure a top-six finish.
The Lions have come close to achieving their goal in recent seasons, missing out by two points in 2019-20 and six points in 2021-22, the latter after still having a chance of finishing in the play-offs on the final day.
Millwall are in sixth place with eight games left, three points ahead of both Norwich City in seventh and Coventry City in eighth.
EFL expert Gabriel Sutton certainly believes that Gary Rowett’s men stand a strong chance, especially given their comparatively favourable run-in that sees them face just three direct promotion rivals.
“I always think that The Den is one of those places where it’s just a cauldron of noise,” he told NewsAtDen.
“They raise themselves for those big occasions. Tom Bradshaw scored a hat-trick against Sheffield United and did it against Watford as well.
“It does feel like The Den, when it’s rocking, can feel like a real fortress, but sometimes it takes a bigger club coming there to really get that out of Millwall.
“Looking at Blackburn on the final day, I think that could be really interesting because, in one sense, would it work in Millwall’s favour if Rovers had already secured a play-off spot and weren’t desperate for it?
“You’d hope that by the time Millwall go to Wigan and Blackpool those two sides could already be down. I think that’s likely to be the case for Wigan, but Blackpool are showing some signs of resurgence under former Lions manager Mick McCarthy.
“If both those sides are relegated or close to it by that point, it could be a huge advantage. Likewise, you’d be hoping that Birmingham are safe. Them, Preston and Hull, there are a few mid-table sides in there.
“I think it’s a favourable run-in. They’ve played Burnley and Sheffield United both times, Middlesbrough as well, so they’ll be avoiding the teams that you’d be really fearful of. Outside of the top three, it’s quite even in the Championship and I think anyone can beat anyone on their day.
“I think it definitely works to Millwall’s advantage if those games at Wigan and Blackpool fall favourably for the Lions.”
Another positive is the current injury situation, as Tyler Burey, Mason Bennett and Billy Mitchell are nearing a return to fitness and could be involved in Millwall’s game at West Brom next weekend.
Mitchell especially stands out as a key player to Gabriel, having been one of the most consistent performers in the squad so far this season. He believes that the 21-year-old has different strengths to the Lions’ other midfielders, which will make him a valuable asset for the final eight games.
“I wouldn’t expect Tyler Burey and Mason Bennett to make the transformative difference for Millwall, but I do think that having Billy Mitchell back in and around the international break would be a huge plus,” he explained
“I look at the midfield pairing of Ryan Leonard and George Saville and I don’t think it’s oozing with creativity. I love Leonard, I think he’s an incredibly committed footballer, and Saville seems to be one who can pose a threat from crosses into the box. However, when you’re facing some of these lower sides, you probably need a bit more creativity.
“Mitchell reminds me a bit of Ben Thompson in a way. As an outsider, you probably assume that a midfielder for Millwall will be a tough tackler that runs around everywhere and throws himself into challenges, maybe without the footballing ability. It’s like the Kevin Muscat syndrome.
“With Billy Mitchell – especially his progressive passing and the way he can conduct play – I think he has that element in his locker as well. Getting him back fully fit can make an enormous difference.”
There is, however, a concern surrounding Millwall’s squad depth, as they have one of the smallest groups in the entire division. This could set up a demanding finale where the games come thick and fast, with Rowett needing to rotate in order to keep things fresh.
“It would be difficult to replace Jake Cooper if he got injured because he’s Jake Cooper,” Gabriel said.
“I think Shaun Hutchinson coming in at centre-back is decent. Scott Malone will be a good squad player. There’s also Jamie Shackleton, who’s quite versatile and can cover Danny McNamara or one of the midfielders.
“In the attacking areas behind the striker there’s a fair bit of depth with Duncan Watmore and Oli Burke in the mix.
“The one thing that Millwall are missing is a physical centre-forward. They’ve got Tom Bradshaw, who’s a real workhorse and, on his day, an incredibly ruthless finisher, one of the best in the league in that respect.
“I don’t know if he’s someone who can win a lot of headers and play back-to-goal really well. Duncan Watmore is more likely to get in behind, so that’s the thing that’s missing in that Millwall squad.”
Of course, keeping top-scorer Bradshaw fit will be crucial, but losing Zian Flemming at any point during the run-in could be fatal for Millwall’s play-off hopes.
The Dutchman has scored 13 goals in his maiden Championship season, having moved to The Den from Eredivisie outfit Fortuna Sittard last summer. While his impact has been immense, Gabriel thinks that there is a way to temporarily replace him for one or two games if Rowett needed to do so.
“You could potentially put George Honeyman in the No.10 role just for his running power,” Gabriel said.
“I think there could be something different in that. It’s against the ball in terms of pressing with Tom Bradshaw, then you can freshen things up by bringing in Duncan Watmore or Oli Burke out wide.
“Zian Flemming has got lots of individual quality and is a hugely important player for the Lions. If he was out for the rest of the season, that would be a huge problem, but I think that Gary Rowett could find a solution to live without Zian Flemming for one or two games. There are options there.”
The pros and cons of Millwall’s run-in are clear, but whether they can take advantage of their lead on the chasing pack remains to be seen.
Based on the current points’ tallies, Gabriel calculated that the Lions may only need to win half of their remaining games to achieve their goal, although the Championship is rarely as easy as it looks on paper.
“Norwich are currently projected to get to 69 points, so 70 points would get Millwall into the play-offs based on points-per-game projections,” Gabriel said.
“Obviously, that could change because it’s possible that one of the teams below can catch form, which would be a different proposition. If we go with 70 points, that would suggest that Millwall would need 10 points from their remaining eight games.
“With the fixtures that they’ve got, I think they’re very likely to get 10 points and probably beyond that from the remaining games, so I think they’ve got a very good chance of securing a top-six spot.”
Image: Millwall FC